Why is MMA so unpredictable?

In the wake of Izzy’s decisive defeat at the hands of Sean Strickland, it’s clear that MMA is probably the most chaotic sport in the world. I use the term sport loosely, here. 

No one gave Strickland a chance. And sure, Izzy deserves to be the favourite but in all my years of watching and covering MMA, one thing is clear as day. Fighting is as unpredictable as it gets. I can’t remember how often some hot-shot fighter got his ass handed to him by an unheralded challenger.

Examples that come to mind are:

Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner: I mean this fight was where we first saw the defensive deficiencies that have plagued Barboza his entire career. The Brazilian was coming off one of the most famous/viral UFC knockouts ever with a spinning wheel kick that sent Terry Etim back to Albion. But, Varner beat Barboza’s head in with constant pressure. He didn’t let Edson off the hook and kept walking him down all while landing heavy shots. All it took was about 3 minutes and he had Barboza on his ass taking heavy shots. It’s not the most insane upset in UFC history but I just wanted to bring up a smaller fight with fewer stakes to show that even at the entry level, this sport is unforgiving. 

MMA is unforgiving

I remember watching UFC 69 in the early morning hours on a shitty Winamp 256K stream. Back in the day, I’d try to catch all the prelim action so I was up at 4:30 in the morning, all groggy. This was a time when the UFC still named their events. This was called Shootout and in hindsight, it was a very apt name. The card itself was relatively uneventful until the main event. GSP took on Matt Serra who earned his shot at the title by winning the Ultimate Fighter. Just like Strickland, no one, I mean no one, gave Serra a chance. The Sherdog forums were calling it the first televised public execution, they just didn’t know how right they were. In many ways, that fight changed the landscape of MMA as we know it. The grinding style that GSP employed following this fight would become a template for how modern MMA looked.  

There I am at 9 in the morning in a shitty part of Calcutta watching Matt Serra lay down the poutine gravy on GSP’s overwhelmed ass. This shit is just how it goes in MMA. Fuck, I even remember watching Crocop eat a crushing right hook and then getting his head pounded into the canvas against Kevin Randleman when he was supposed to beat the crap out of the American Wrestler. Shogun broke his arm against Mark Coleman who himself was a victim when was supposed to run through Pete Williams in the early days of the UFC but got headkicked into a highlight reel. My god, every time you think someone’s got it in the bag, crazy shit happens in MMA. Remember Sokodojou? The guy smashed Ricardo Arona and Little Nog in less time than it takes you to microwave your lunch. It’s crazy to think that even the best fighters on the planet have to check their egos from time to time because nutty shit like this happens. 

Which brings me to the main point, why is it that the sport is so fucking unpredictable, that even professional bookies have nightmares trying to pin down the odds? I’m no gambler, but I can’t imagine how difficult it would be to make accurate predictions. And I’m not just talking about upsets here. Insane shit happens in MMA. How many of us thought Silva’s leg was going to snap in half against Weidman? Or the same for Weidman? 

Too many variables in a fistfight

The one way I personally think that the reason why is that there are too many variables to control in a full-on fistfight. Especially with 4-ounce gloves on!! You don’t even need to be a power puncher to put someone’s lights out. Guys have been KO’d by slams, falling on their heads, and running into the octagon post ala Kenny Florian vs Sean Sherk. Im no boxing fan but the thing with that combat sport is that there are way fewer variables to account for. You just box! There’s a set series of combos, punches etc that you have to follow in order to be effective. In MMA, all that gets thrown out the window. You could be the best kickboxer in the MMA and still get beaten using a modified Philly shell, twitchy parrying, a good one-two and a front teep. 

This is one of the many reasons I love the sport. There’s a thrill and uncertainty when watching fights that no other sport can produce. Watching Leon starch Kamaru to win the title in the 5th round is a feeling that I’ll remember for the rest of my life. Shit is never over until the fat lady sings and MMA is the perfect representation of that philosophy. Guys can take vicious beatings only to come back and win the fight in a devastating fashion. Like the insanity takes place mid-fight! How the fuck can anyone predict this sport!! Again, it’s been 20 long fucking years and I honestly cannot predict how things will go. I can offer up the best possible scenario based on skills but at the end of the day, I know that deep down, I’m never confident of my picks. 

MMA will always remain an unpredictable sport

Another reason why is that since there is so much tape to study in this day and age, no one really knows when a fighter gets figured out until it happens. So far the only puzzle in MMA seems to be Jon Jones! 

Age, damage, loss of speed … all this eventually catches up but no one can really predict when it’ll happen. And again, this is why We LOVE THIS SPORT! No other live event elicits this much anxiety and thrill. It’s another reason why I don’t think I’ll ever stop watching professional fighting. It’s just too goddamn exciting.